Saturday 8 February 2014

Week 4 - Climate Models and Geoengineering

Two controversial areas this week.

Climate models are computerised simulations of the Earth's climate which can be used to predict future climate based on a given set of variables.

The principle is fine and can be tested and tuned against past climates. It's important to realise that they don't predict precisely what will happen but give a general idea of where things are likely to head.

For this reason they are considered controversial by climate sceptics/deniers. The rest of us see the models for what they are: A useful tool.

By contrast, Geoengineering is controversial for good reason: It's playing god.

You see, if you accept that computers can never truly model all the complexity of the climate down to the finest detail, how can you expect to use something like stratospheric aerosols on anything other than a wing and a prayer? It's nuts.

But there are lot of vested interests out there who want and need a silver-bullet, so don't be surprised if geoengineering gets deployed anyway.

That's when we'll KNOW we're screwed.

No comments:

Post a Comment